satellites space debris filings international telecommunication union

Earth & Space

One million (paper) satellites

Plans for over one million satellites have been submitted to the International Telecommunications Union, a United Nations agency, in the last 6 years. Either many of these satellites will launch, and cause environmental problems on Earth and in orbit, or companies and governments are inflating their numbers, suggesting more satellites than they plan to launch.

https://doi.org/10.25250/thescbr.brk799

by ,

Reading time 3 min

published on Jan 24, 2025

Over the past six years, companies and governments have submitted plans to launch over one million satellites. If even a small portion of these satellites launch, it would have serious implications for the environment in space and on Earth. However, many may not launch and the companies could be inflating their numbers, perhaps to get media or investment attention or to sell the plans in future.

Governments must submit information in ‘filings’ to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which is a United Nations agency that coordinates radio signals around the world. This information is submitted on behalf of the satellite operator, which may be a company, university or government agency.

The largest filing since 2017 was filed by Rwanda, on behalf of a French startup, for 337,320 satellites. This French company then filed again, this time through France, for 116,640 satellites. Right now, there are only 8,000 working satellites in space, so this would be a big increase. In total, there were over 300 separate projects from all around the world, with more than 90 containing over 1,000 satellites.

If even 100,000 satellites were to launch in the coming years, the rocket launches required would harm the atmosphere by emitting greenhouse gases, and when the satellites and rockets return to Earth after use, they would risk hitting people or aircraft. In Earth orbit, satellites travel fast and if two of these satellites were to collide it would create lots of space debris, which could then hit other satellites.

However, the big filings may be overstating the number of satellites that will launch. Getting lots of satellites into space is hard and expensive, and many projects will fail. Additionally, companies may be asking for more satellites than they will launch, maybe to get media or investment attention. They could also be doing it to secure the radio signal rights in order to sell them later on.

Either way, the sheer number of satellite filings is making it harder for the ITU to coordinate future radio signals. One reason is that it is hard for the ITU to model hundreds of thousands of satellites, all transmitting at the same time. This is to make sure signal limits are not breached, but these filings make that modelling much harder.

Some companies have been filing for satellites through multiple countries. SpaceX, a US company which has launched over 7,000 satellites in recent years, has made filings through Norway, Germany and the United States. OneWeb, another company which has launched over 600 satellites, has made filings through the United Kingdom, France, and Mexico.

Companies may be doing this because different countries have different rules and fees for filings. Shopping around for favourable countries also happens in other industries. In shipping, for example, so-called ‘flag-of-convenience’ countries register ships cheaply and impose only minimal standards – often these ships have poor safety and environmental records. The same thing may be happening with satellite filings.

Either the satellites will launch, and damage the environment, or countries and governments are fiddling the numbers. Either way, the ITU can make changes to its rules to prevent this. The ITU is controlled by its 193 member countries and can change its rules every three to six years at conferences called World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRCs). The most recent one took place from 20November until 15 December 2023.

The ITU could consider introducing fees for larger filings or limiting the number of satellites that can be launched. Making changes at the ITU is slow, and it may be the next conference in 2027 or the one after in 2031 when these changes can be enacted. In the meantime, many satellites will launch, and the problem will only worsen.

Original Article:

Andrew Falle et al. ,One million (paper) satellites.Science382,150-152(2023).DOI:10.1126/science.adi4639

Next read: Killing C. difficile with targeted strikes by Joseph Kirk

Edited by:

Alba Covelo Paz , Junior Scientific Editor

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